11 November 2022

Press Release

For immediate release

‘Black hole’ in Government plans to cut GHG emissions from farming – WWF FOI

A Freedom of Information request by WWF reveals UK Government needs to more than double ambition on cutting greenhouse gas emissions in the land and farming sector to hit climate targets
Experts claim Government is making ‘heroic assumptions’ about emissions savings from land and farming
With the first week of COP27 nearly over, WWF warns UK is already falling behind in its peatland and tree targets

The UK Government has a black hole in its plan to cut GHG emissions from farming and to absorb more carbon in forests and peatlands, WWF reveals today.

Analysis of new numbers released in a Freedom of Information request (FOI) from WWF against current government policy suggests that only around 40% of the cuts that the Net Zero Strategy says are needed by 2030 from farming and land are being delivered. Current policies for cutting emissions from land are far from on track, with peatland restoration rates and tree-planting falling well short of targets.

This means the UK Government and devolved nations need to double the ambition of their plans for reducing emissions from UK land and farming if they are going to be on track for hitting climate targets in 2030 and beyond.

The UK has set targets to reduce its GHG emissions by 68% by 2030 compared to 1990, and by 78% by 2035 to help avoid climate breakdown. However, it is falling short, as recent Government statistics show that the UK is on track to miss its legally binding target by a huge margin.

Recent UN analysis show that ‘woefully inadequate’ climate plans mean there is no credible pathway to maintaining global temperatures to safe levels below 1.5°C, meaning instead we are currently on course for a global temperature rise of 2.5°C.

Kate Norgrove, Executive Director of Advocacy and Campaigns at WWF, said:

“These new figures highlight a major black hole in the government’s plans to cut carbon emissions from farming.

“Evidently, carbon cutting plans for the countryside are not good enough and the UK Government is making wildly heroic assumptions about what it can achieve. As the Climate Change Committee has warned time and time again – there is no plan for reducing emissions from farming and land.

"The new Secretary of State at DEFRA must now double down on climate action and press ahead with ambitious low-carbon farming schemes. Failure to do so would be a betrayal of nature and leave the UK entirely unable to deliver its legally binding climate targets."

The FOI shows that the Net Zero Strategy makes heroic assumptions around what is achievable in cutting GHG emissions in agriculture and land across three key areas:

Peatlands: New numbers obtained by WWF show that, although the Government plans to restore only half the area of peatland the Climate Change Committee (CCC) says is necessary, the Net Zero Strategy expects to achieve more emissions reduction from peatland restoration than the CCC every year out to 2037. Current peatland restoration rates are only at a sixth of what is needed.
Low carbon farming: The new numbers show that the government’s Net Zero Strategy assumes low-carbon farming will help save 3.7 million tonnes of greenhouse gases per year from 2025 across the UK and 4.8 million tonnes per year in 2030. But separate modelling compiled for the Government suggests that in England by 2030 only about 1.5 million tonnes will be saved per year (with Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales unlikely to bridge gap because their farming sectors are smaller). The new farm payment systems in England could help cut emissions, but it is only due to be fully rolled out by the end of 2027 (and the equivalent Scottish and Welsh schemes even later than this), meaning it is unclear why the Government expects emissions to begin dropping rapidly in 2025.
Tree planting: the numbers also show the Net Zero Strategy relies on carbon savings from tree-planting to meet climate targets. But it takes several years for young trees to start absorbing significant levels of carbon dioxide, and the UK is lagging far behind its current target of creating 30,000 hectares of new forests per year by the end of this parliament. It has been flatlining at less than half this, roughly 14,000 hectares per year, for several years. Without any additional planting, there will be no increase in carbon absorption.

Finally, alongside making changes to farming practices, dietary shift is crucial to reducing the climate impact of agriculture and land. It makes up the bulk of emissions reductions from agriculture in the CCC’s recommendations for 2030. Yet the FOI makes clear this is completely absent from the Government's current plans, making meeting climate targets even harder.

Failing to deliver on emissions reductions in agriculture and land will not only affect the UK’s ability to meet its carbon targets, but also targets for restoring nature. Restoring peatlands and forests, and more sustainable farming, can create important habitats for species like curlews, and help to store more water, to help farmers, communities, and wildlife cope better with extreme weather like the drought we have seen this year.

Kate Norgrove continued:

“We urgently need world leaders gathered at COP this week to commit to a shift to nature-friendly, low carbon farming if we are to meet the targets the world needs – the UK Government must play its part in that by rolling out a robust system of incentives for sustainable farming.

“Now is not the time for the UK Government, elected on its greenest ever manifesto, to break its promises on nature and climate.

“A shift to nature-friendly, low carbon farming will not only help nature and climate, but it will also help to unleash investment and new technology, create green jobs and underpin food security. We need the Government to act now to ensure UK land contributes towards mitigating and adapting to climate change, restoring UK nature and providing livelihoods and economic growth in rural areas.”

ENDS 

Assets available here

About the WWF Freedom of Information request:

On April 14 2022 WWF-UK asked the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy the following questions. Some were subsequently passed onto Defra for response.

“We seek publication of the information relating to certain claims in the Strategy regarding the emissions reductions in the agriculture, forestry and other land use areas (“AFOLU”). In particular, please provide:

the information on which BEIS relied as the basis for the claim that the indicative ‘delivery’ pathway for decarbonisation of AFOLU to 2037 will be met by policies set out in the Net Zero Strategy and the Environmental Land Management Scheme (as appropriate);

information by way of breakdown of emissions reductions expected in respect of each of agriculture, forestry and other land use respectively by the end of the sixth carbon budget period (31 December 2032);

information concerning the basis for the claim that 85% of farmers will be engaging in low carbon practices by 2035 – in particular:

what form will the low carbon farming practices take?

why is it reasonable to suppose that the figure of 85% will be met? What is the evidence base for this figure?

what steps does government plan to take to ensure that the figure is met?

what total emissions reduction will the 85% figure yield? And what is the evidence base for this estimated saving?

information concerning the assumptions which BEIS relied on in the indicative ‘delivery’ pathway for the AFOLU sector regarding:

productivity and yield improvements

innovations in areas such as animal health or feed additives and

changes in food production and consumption.

information explaining the basis on which tree-planting will continue to contribute to the indicative ‘delivery’ pathway set out in the Strategy after 2024, given there is no tree-planting target set for the period beyond 2024 and no monies allocated to tree-planting in respect of the period after that date.

information which explains how the peatland restoration target to restore 280,000ha of peatland in England by 2050 –

will contribute to the indicative ‘delivery’ pathway set out in the Strategy, and

will be met, given that ELM is expected to deliver around 200,000ha and the Nature for Climate Fund 35,000ha of restored peat, leaving a gap of 45,000ha of peatland unaccounted for in the targets set by government to date.’

About ELMs:

The Government’s Environmental Land Management Schemes for England (ELMS) are essential to futureproof our food system. The ELMs review is expected to take place in the upcoming weeks after delays due to the current political climate.
They are designed to replace the EU’s common agricultural policy (CAP) and pay farmers public money for delivering goods through nature-friendly farming practices.
ELMS consists of three schemes: Sustainable Framing Incentives (SFI), Local Nature Recovery and Landscape Recovery.
The new farming system in England could help cut emissions, but it is only due to be fully rolled out by the end of 2027. The equivalent Welsh and Scottish agricultural payment systems are due to be rolled out even later.
Even if the new farming system in England – which will reward farmers for low-carbon practices and storing more carbon on farms - were rolled out on time and plan, these emissions savings would still be challenging.
The on-going Government review of agriculture must now ensure that the UK doubles down on climate action and presses ahead with even more ambitious plans to cut GHG emissions from agriculture and land right across the UK. Failure to do so would be a betrayal of nature and leave the UK struggling to meet its climate targets.
Agriculture and land use is a devolved policy area; therefore, the Welsh and Scottish governments are in charge of plans to cut GHG emissions from farms and land in Scotland and Wales.
Work by WWF-Scotland and WWF-Wales offices show ambition on reducing emissions from agriculture and land in devolved nations is also weak.
For example, WWF-Scotland found that current Scottish policy does not get Scottish agriculture even halfway to where it needs to be by 2032 to meet climate targets; and WWF-Wales are working on getting agricultural emission reduction targets in the Welsh net zero plans, which currently has no specific targets on agriculture.